"And the ride may get racier." So says Robert Baker, chief economist at the SMMT, in his latest weekly report to member firms. January's retail data show weak growth in January's sales and the housing market looked weaker, though some expect price rises. The weather and the VAT increase seem the main factors. At the same time, UK trade data showed low demand for exports, with some sources expecting an upward trend for exports later, balanced by a possible boost for sterling. Growth in money supply and cash spending remains feeble, but The Bank of England and others expect recovery to gain momentum but see mid-2011 to early 2012 before economic activity is back to pre-recession levels. In the meantime, manufacturing output, though down, has stabilised and should rise slightly, while crude oil prices continue to exert a big influence on inflation trends.