Commercial vehicle recovery continues with July registrations up 3.0%

“July saw the first drop in the volume of vans registered following 17 consecutive monthly increases, reflecting a more uncertain period for the economy,” said Paul Everitt, SMMT Chief Executive. “Truck figures rose by 27.5%, the tenth successive monthly rise and while industry remains cautious, expectations for the remainder of 2011 are optimistic, with van and truck figures looking set to reach 300,000 units by year-end.”

For the second half of 2011, the outlook is for more weak GDP growth and high inflation, which may inhibit sustainable growth in van and truck registrations. Volumes should hold above current levels of annual registration volumes, but the outlook is both challenging and uncertain.

Heavy Commercial Vehicles July 2011

Over the past ten months artics have led the rebound in truck demand; in contrast, recovery in the rigid sectors below 16TGVW has been weak, delayed and subdued. 

Truck and Van Registrations July 2011

For the truck sector >6T GVW total registration volume is up by a cumulative 5,761 units for the seven months to July 2011 on the same period in 2010 – 81% of that is due to growth in artics.

 

	Trucks·               Rolling year: up 21.57% to 39,042.  ·               Month: up 2754% to 3,519. ·               YTD: up 25.71% to 22,411.
Rigids ·  Rolling year: down 1.26% to 22,372.  ·  Month: up 6.15% to 2,088.  ·  YTD: down 0.44% at 12,802.

All artics ·               Rolling year: up 75.9% to 16,715.  ·               Month: up 80.5% to 1,431. ·               YTD: up 93.4% to 9,609

The Manufacturers’ Market

HEAVY COMMERCIAL VEHICLES 6t and Above

 Still all to play for in the race for second place after seven months of registration figures so far in 2011.  The race should pick up dramatically in the remaining months as the LEZ 2012 factor increases in importance.  July finally saw a turnaround in Iveco’s performance, although it is probably too little too late to take their sixth place back from Renault Trucks, also enjoying a fruitful July 155% higher than ther results in 2010.

 Light Commercial Vehicles July 2011

All Vans to 3.5T ·               Rolling year: up 23.8% to 248,883. ·               Month: up 13.4% to 22,850. ·               YTD: up 24.2% to 133,238.

Van registrations grew strongly from the end of the recession in 2009/early 2010. July’s market saw this trend change as the recovery phase of the cycle subsides.  Underlying annual van registration volume is back to near 250,000 units – a significant recovery given the 190,000 unit benchmark typical at the bottom of the recent recession.

The wheels appear to have fallen of Renault’s charge forward in July, whilst only Vauxhall and Iveco have much to celebrate about.  Vauxhall’s performance was up on last year, although not enough to keep VW at bay with their deep advertising pockets and up-to-date product lineup.  Citroen and Mercedes-Benz continue to struggle against their 2010 performance, although with less than 2,000 registrations between fourth and seventh places it is still all to play for.

Figures in () brackets denote last month’s position [ ] denote end of 2010 position